San Diego Real Estate 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook: Insights from Point Loma's Top Compass Agent

As we wrap up 2025, San Diego's real estate market tells a story of resilience amid challenges—think steady demand clashing with affordability hurdles and a slow thaw in inventory. I'm Justin Halbert, Point Loma's leading Compass agent with over 4 years closing deals in this coastal gem. From Spanish Revival bungalows in Roseville to bayfront estates in La Playa, I've guided many buyers and sellers through Point Loma's unique market. Drawing on the latest data and my boots-on-the-ground experience, let's break down where we stand today and what 2026 holds. Whether you're eyeing a sunset-view home in Sunset Cliffs or prepping to list in Loma Portal, this is your roadmap to smart moves.

2025: A Year of Stabilization and Subtle Shifts

San Diego's market entered 2025 with high hopes after a post-pandemic rebound, but elevated mortgage rates (hovering 6.5-7%) and persistent affordability woes tempered the pace. Here's the snapshot as of late 2025:

• Home Prices Hold Steady with Segment Nuance: The median sales price countywide sits at around $975,000, a modest 0-3.4% increase year-over-year depending on the source. Detached single-family homes led with a 2.4% rise to $1,075,000, while attached properties (condos/townhomes) dipped 0.1% to $675,000. Point Loma bucked some trends—our median hit $1.4 million in Q4, up 1.8% thanks to premium coastal demand.
• Sales Volume Ticks Up Modestly: Transactions rose about 6.1% from October 2024 to 2025, with statewide existing-home sales up 19.8% annually to 268,180 (seasonally adjusted). In San Diego, closed sales increased 1-4% year-to-date, signaling buyers are adapting despite rates. Point Loma saw a 3.2% uptick in luxury closings ($2M+), driven by relocations and cash buyers.
• Inventory Builds, But Slowly: Active listings climbed 20-27% year-over-year, easing the ultra-tight supply of prior years. Homes now average 25-35 days on market (up from 15-20 in 2024), giving buyers more negotiating power. In Point Loma, inventory rose 15%, but prime view properties still move fast—under 20 days for well-priced gems.
• Affordability Remains the Elephant: With median prices near $975K and rates above 6.5%, the income needed to afford a typical home exceeds $200K annually. This squeezed first-time buyers (down 5% market share), boosting investor and all-cash deals to 25%. San Diego ranks among the least affordable U.S. metros, per recent Case-Shiller data showing a 0.85% annual price dip in September.

Overall, 2025 was about balance: No crash, but no frenzy either. Demand stayed robust in coastal enclaves like Point Loma, where lifestyle trumps economics for many.

2026 Outlook: Balanced Growth, Easing Rates, and Renewed Activity

Looking ahead, experts (from Redfin to C.A.R.) forecast a more buyer-friendly year as rates dip and inventory expands. No dramatic shifts—just sustainable progress. Here's what to expect:

• Price Appreciation: Modest and Localized: Countywide medians could rise 1-4%, landing around $990K-$1.01M by year-end. Base case: +2-4% as supply constraints linger. Point Loma's premium segment may outperform at +3-5%, fueled by tech/biotech influx and limited waterfront supply. Watch for "heat zones" near top schools and beaches—Sunset Cliffs views won't budge.
• Mortgage Rates: Low- to Mid-6% Stability: Expect 30-year fixed rates to ease to 5.9-6.4% (Fannie Mae/MBA projections), unlocking pent-up demand without sparking a seller's stampede. If we hit the low-6s by Q2, sales could surge 10-15%. Pro tip: Lock in now if buying—rates won't plummet to 2021 levels.
• Sales and Inventory: A Healthier Flow: Transactions may climb 5-10% to 280,000+ statewide, with San Diego following suit. Inventory could rise another 15-20%, shortening the "lock-in effect" and adding 1,000-1,500 more listings monthly. Rents might dip 1% amid higher vacancies, pressuring some investors to sell.
• Key Risks and Opportunities: Affordability improves slightly as wages outpace prices (wage growth ~3.5% vs. home prices ~2%). No crash on the horizon—experts peg 5-year growth at 15%+. But watch economic wildcards: If rates stall above 6.5%, sales cool; below 6%, expect a mini-boom. For Point Loma sellers, early 2026 listings could capture peak buyer enthusiasm.

In short, 2026 shapes up as a "Goldilocks" year: Not too hot, not too cold—just right for strategic moves.

Why Point Loma Stands Out in This Market

As Point Loma's top Compass agent, I've seen our peninsula thrive amid broader cooling. With median prices at $1.4M and sales up 3%, we're a haven for discerning buyers seeking bay breezes and bluff-top serenity. Inventory's up, but quality listings (think Mid-Century Moderns in the Wooded Area) vanish quickly. If you're buying, act before Q2 rate relief draws crowds. Sellers: Price right, and you'll net top dollar without dragging into summer.

Ready to Navigate 2026? Let's Connect!

San Diego's market is evolving—stabilized in 2025, poised for balanced growth in 2026. As your Point Loma Compass expert, I'm here to decode the data and tailor strategies for your goals. Dreaming of a La Playa yacht club address or downsizing from Liberty Station? Reach out for a complimentary 2026 market analysis.

📞 Call: (619) 432-5181

📧 Email: justin.halbert@compass.com

🌐 Visit: justinhalbert.compass.com